tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Reno on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4078 Southwest Flight history → AUS 14:00 RNO 15:25 24% 5% 0.6% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:50 → LAS 06:35WN 321 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 07:35 → RNO 08:55WN 3179 5h 05m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671 2h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 6h 32m 95% 86%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 374 50m Phoenix PHX 07:50 → RNO 09:40WN 146 5h 00m 93% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:00 → LAX 07:40UA 4642 · flown by SkyWest 1h 37m Los Angeles LAX 09:17 → RNO 10:56UA 5410 · flown by SkyWest 6h 56m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 5h 54m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 1h 31m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 6h 09m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:20 → SFO 07:05UA 1348 1h 08m San Francisco SFO 08:13 → RNO 09:27UA 5394 · flown by SkyWest 6h 07m 96% 84%
AlaskaDetails → AUS 06:00 → SAN 07:08AS 3293 · flown by SkyWest 2h 22m San Diego SAN 09:30 → RNO 11:27AS 3110 · flown by SkyWest 7h 27m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 20:01 → SFO 21:50UA 292 55m San Francisco SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757 5h 57m 71% 53%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 15:50 → LAS 16:40WN 4143 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 17:45 → RNO 19:10WN 2012 5h 20m 73% 49%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 20:30 → LAS 21:15WN 330 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 22:15 → RNO 23:40WN 287 5h 10m 64% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON