Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4469 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 4469 AUS 06:45 → SAN 07:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 391 AUS 18:10 → SAN 19:05 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4469 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 06:45	SAN 07:35	7%	1%	0.7%	100%
AS 3293 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 06:00	SAN 07:08	10%	4%	0.9%	89%
WN 1435 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 10:05	SAN 10:55	17%	4%	0.6%	48%
AS 3084 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:59	SAN 16:05	23%	8%	0.8%	65%
AS 3249 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 19:59	SAN 21:13	24%	8%	1.0%	57%
WN 389 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:00	SAN 12:50	30%	7%	0.6%	44%
WN 2593 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 20:30	SAN 21:20	38%	12%	0.6%	4%
WN 391 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 18:10	SAN 19:05	38%	10%	0.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON