Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 780 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 780 AUS 06:00 → SEA 08:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 339 AUS 19:07 → SEA 21:35 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 780 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:00	SEA 08:23	6%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 1684 Delta Flight history →	AUS 11:14	SEA 13:45	10%	3%	0.8%	94%
AS 215 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 08:30	SEA 10:58	23%	5%	0.7%	65%
AS 503 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 16:17	SEA 18:47	24%	7%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
DL 831 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:14	SEA 20:46	24%	7%	0.8%	76%
WN 393 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 14:20	SEA 16:40	31%	8%	0.6%	52%
AS 339 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 19:07	SEA 21:35	33%	9%	0.8%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	1h 03m Denver	DEN 08:01 → SEA 10:00UA 2271	6h 21m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541	1h 10m Portland	PDX 10:35 → SEA 11:43AS 3431 · flown by SkyWest	6h 28m	95%	79%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → SEA 09:25AA 707	6h 24m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON