Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1348 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 1348 AUS 05:20 → SFO 07:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4779 AUS 16:35 → SFO 18:15 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1348 United Flight history →	AUS 05:20	SFO 07:05	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 381 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:10	SFO 08:47	9%	5%	0.8%	72%
UA 694 United Flight history →	AUS 07:00	SFO 08:45	11%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1668 United Flight history →	AUS 08:40	SFO 10:25	19%	6%	0.6%	73%
WN 4363 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 08:00	SFO 09:45	24%	8%	0.5%	62%
UA 442 United Flight history →	AUS 15:35	SFO 17:24	25%	10%	0.6%	65%
DL 1077 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:21	SFO 17:04	26%	11%	0.7%	50%
UA 292 United Flight history →	AUS 20:01	SFO 21:50	27%	11%	0.6%	64%
WN 4779 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 16:35	SFO 18:15	38%	15%	0.5%	39%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	AUS 05:50 → LAS 06:35WN 321	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 07:35 → SFO 09:10WN 2934	5h 20m	96%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON