Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2618 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2618 AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1180 AUS 19:00 → SLC 20:45 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 12% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2618 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	SLC 10:12	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
WN 403 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 09:15	SLC 11:00	9%	2%	0.5%	79%
DL 3908 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:30	SLC 16:39	13%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 2671 Delta Flight history →	AUS 12:20	SLC 14:09	16%	3%	0.6%	75%
DL 2581 Delta Flight history →	AUS 19:25	SLC 21:21	22%	6%	0.6%	82%
WN 1180 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 19:00	SLC 20:45	30%	10%	0.6%	12%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON