Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Orange County, leaving 16:55, is the safest bet: 37% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 406 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 16:05	SMF 17:40	35%	10%	0.5%	45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 05:50 → LAS 06:35WN 321	2h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 08:35 → SMF 10:05WN 860	6h 15m	100%	91%
United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	1h 02m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149	5h 56m	97%	90%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:45 → DEN 07:00WN 282	55m Denver	DEN 07:55 → SMF 09:30WN 1738	5h 45m	97%	90%
Alaska Details →	AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541	1h 35m Portland	PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon	7h 18m	97%	88%
Southwest Details →	AUS 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 374	2h 35m Phoenix	PHX 09:35 → SMF 11:30WN 781	6h 50m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274	1h 00m Dallas	DAL 07:40 → SMF 09:15WN 4218	5h 40m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:10 → LAX 06:15WN 332	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 09:30 → SMF 10:55WN 4454	7h 45m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	AUS 06:45 → SAN 07:35WN 4469	1h 05m San Diego	SAN 08:40 → SMF 10:20WN 4356	5h 35m	100%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	AUS 15:35 → MDW 18:05WN 360	50m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → SMF 21:20WN 2897	7h 45m	69%	43%
Alaska Details →	AUS 14:59 → SAN 16:05AS 3084 · flown by SkyWest	51m San Diego	SAN 16:56 → SMF 18:38AS 2334 · flown by Horizon	5h 39m	68%	38%
Southwest Details →	AUS 16:55 → SNA 17:55WN 901	50m Santa Ana	SNA 18:45 → SMF 20:10WN 3872	5h 15m	55%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON