tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 901 at 16:55, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 901 Southwest Flight history → AUS 16:55 SNA 17:55 35% 8% 0.5% 34%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:45 → DEN 07:00WN 282 50m Denver DEN 07:50 → SNA 09:15WN 1745 5h 30m 97% 89%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 374 1h 10m Phoenix PHX 08:10 → SNA 09:30WN 3348 4h 50m 98% 85%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 08:15 → SJC 09:45WN 398 2h 20m San Jose SJC 12:05 → SNA 13:30WN 3710 7h 15m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → SNA 09:33AA 2680 6h 32m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 1h 31m Denver DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320 6h 21m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 2h 57m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 29m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:50 → LAS 06:35WN 321 2h 35m Las Vegas LAS 09:10 → SNA 10:20WN 187 6h 30m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541 1h 13m Portland PDX 10:38 → SNA 13:15AS 588 8h 00m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → AUS 14:30 → SLC 16:39DL 3908 · flown by SkyWest 46m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → SNA 18:25DL 3856 · flown by SkyWest 5h 55m 69% 53%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 15:25 → PHX 15:50WN 376 55m Phoenix PHX 16:45 → SNA 18:00WN 4510 4h 35m 68% 41%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 16:05 → SMF 17:40WN 406 50m Sacramento SMF 18:30 → SNA 20:00WN 3834 5h 55m 52% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON