Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 487 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 487 AUS 08:15 → TPA 11:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 4618 AUS 16:25 → TPA 19:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 487 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	TPA 11:48	8%	4%	17.2%	85%
WN 411 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 08:40	TPA 12:05	12%	3%	17.1%	89%
DL 3734 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:55	TPA 19:01	19%	9%	15.5%	84%
WN 4618 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 16:25	TPA 19:55	35%	12%	13.1%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON