tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4782 at 16:30, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4782 Southwest Flight history → AUS 16:30 TUL 18:00 27% 8% 0.5% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274 1h 45m Dallas DAL 08:25 → TUL 09:30WN 4445 3h 55m 100% 93%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:00 → MDW 07:30WN 4961 2h 30m Chicago MDW 10:00 → TUL 11:50WN 680 6h 50m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579 3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:06 → TUL 12:18AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 6h 18m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 31m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:10 → TUL 08:22AA 3426 · flown by Envoy 3h 21m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → TUL 13:36UA 5413 · flown by SkyWest 6h 26m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 53m Houston IAH 07:26 → TUL 09:09UA 5325 · flown by SkyWest 3h 39m 93% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 40m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 19:44 → IAH 20:55UA 1871 47m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 3h 31m 67% 56%
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 55m Houston IAH 18:20 → TUL 20:01UA 5441 · flown by SkyWest 3h 51m 67% 54%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 17:35 → DEN 19:05WN 290 50m Denver DEN 19:55 → TUL 22:40WN 1764 5h 05m 67% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON