Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, G4 237 at 07:00, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G4 237 Allegiant Flight history →	AVL 07:00	BOS 09:14	7%	3%	1.3%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BOS 11:06DL 2432	5h 31m	96%	88%
American Details →	AVL 05:00 → CLT 06:07AA 5257 · flown by PSA	2h 48m Charlotte	CLT 08:55 → BOS 11:08AA 1533	6h 08m	95%	85%
American Details →	AVL 05:30 → PHL 07:21AA 5846 · flown by Piedmont	3h 09m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → BOS 12:03AA 1416	6h 33m	96%	84%
United Details →	AVL 06:40 → ORD 07:52UA 4651 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 10:30 → BOS 14:07UA 1606	7h 27m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	5h 54m	93%	81%
American Details →	AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 11:18 → BOS 13:33AA 1611	4h 41m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726	6h 39m	99%	80%
United Details →	AVL 06:00 → EWR 08:08UA 4399 · flown by GoJet	3h 51m Newark	EWR 11:59 → BOS 13:16UA 1669	7h 16m	94%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	AVL 19:45 → ATL 21:02DL 5122 · flown by Endeavor	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	5h 35m	64%	53%
American Details →	AVL 20:15 → CLT 21:32AA 5792 · flown by Piedmont	54m Charlotte	CLT 22:26 → BOS 00:37 +1AA 1843	4h 22m	49%	39%
Delta Details →	AVL 18:56 → LGA 21:02DL 4664 · flown by Endeavor	57m New York	LGA 21:59 → BOS 23:31DL 2801	4h 35m	42%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON