Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4736 American flown by Republic Flight history →	AVL 19:42	DCA 21:19	24%	8%	2.3%	70%
AA 5052 American flown by PSA Flight history →	AVL 11:21	DCA 12:59	25%	7%	2.1%	52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 52m	98%	86%
American Details →	AVL 07:11 → ORD 08:29AA 3813 · flown by Envoy	2h 16m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → DCA 13:59AA 4809 · flown by Republic	6h 48m	97%	85%
United Details →	AVL 06:40 → ORD 07:52UA 4651 · flown by SkyWest	2h 08m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → DCA 13:04UA 1381	6h 24m	96%	82%
American Details →	AVL 05:00 → CLT 06:07AA 5257 · flown by PSA	1h 53m Charlotte	CLT 08:00 → DCA 09:33AA 1977	4h 33m	95%	82%
United Details →	AVL 10:41 → ORD 11:53UA 4656 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314	6h 31m	98%	79%
American Details →	AVL 07:01 → DFW 08:44AA 4261 · flown by Envoy	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:57 → DCA 13:59AA 1624	6h 58m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	4h 51m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:42DL 737	4h 49m	92%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	AVL 19:45 → ATL 21:02DL 5122 · flown by Endeavor	57m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	4h 07m	60%	46%
American Details →	AVL 17:32 → DFW 19:12AA 1429	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	6h 27m	62%	45%
American Details →	AVL 20:15 → CLT 21:32AA 5792 · flown by Piedmont	55m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	3h 38m	51%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON