Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


G4 241 Allegiant Flight history →	AVL 06:00	DEN 07:13	9%	3%	1.0%	92%
UA 314 United Flight history →	AVL 15:36	DEN 17:11	17%	7%	0.9%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 30m	98%	85%
United Details →	AVL 17:38 → ORD 19:00UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 21:50 → DEN 23:48UA 377	8h 10m	100%	84%
United Details →	AVL 10:41 → ORD 11:53UA 4656 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	7h 50m	100%	83%
United Details →	AVL 06:40 → ORD 07:52UA 4651 · flown by SkyWest	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 10:54 → DEN 12:45UA 581	8h 05m	96%	82%
American Details →	AVL 05:00 → CLT 06:07AA 5257 · flown by PSA	1h 32m Charlotte	CLT 07:39 → DEN 09:10AA 1754	6h 10m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	8h 07m	97%	80%
American Details →	AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont	3h 18m Charlotte	CLT 13:32 → DEN 15:03AA 1735	8h 11m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 53m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AVL 17:38 → ORD 19:00UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 20:00 → DEN 22:01UA 767	6h 23m	71%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON