tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4261 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4261 American flown by Envoy Flight history → AVL 07:01 DFW 08:44 10% 4% 1.1% 82%
AA 1429 American Flight history → AVL 17:32 DFW 19:12 30% 11% 1.4% 50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961 6h 37m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → AVL 06:40 → ORD 07:52UA 4651 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441 7h 32m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont 2h 51m Charlotte CLT 13:05 → DFW 14:57AA 2407 7h 05m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → AVL 05:00 → CLT 06:07AA 5257 · flown by PSA 2h 49m Charlotte CLT 08:56 → DFW 10:48AA 1276 6h 48m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → AVL 11:21 → DCA 12:59AA 5052 · flown by PSA 2h 14m Washington DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624 7h 23m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414 5h 51m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921 6h 40m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → AVL 05:30 → PHL 07:21AA 5846 · flown by Piedmont 1h 46m Philadelphia PHL 09:07 → DFW 11:45AA 812 7h 15m 93% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AVL 17:38 → ORD 19:00UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest 50m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 5h 58m 60% 48%
AmericanDetails → AVL 15:58 → LGA 17:59AA 4342 · flown by Republic 48m New York LGA 18:47 → DFW 21:50AA 1571 6h 52m 69% 46%
AmericanDetails → AVL 20:15 → CLT 21:32AA 5792 · flown by Piedmont 1h 04m Charlotte CLT 22:36 → DFW 00:29 +1AA 1271 5h 14m 55% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON