tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4399 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record AVL 06:00 EWR 08:08 13% 10% 2.8% 87%
UA 4511 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record AVL 16:37 EWR 18:40 35% 27% 15.6% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397 4h 54m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → AVL 05:00 → CLT 06:07AA 5257 · flown by PSA 1h 53m Charlotte CLT 08:00 → EWR 09:59AA 1782 4h 59m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → AVL 06:40 → ORD 07:52UA 4651 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 7h 37m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → AVL 17:38 → ORD 19:00UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 7h 15m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 4h 28m 88% 76%
UnitedDetails → AVL 10:41 → ORD 11:53UA 4656 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Chicago ORD 14:25 → EWR 18:00UA 2329 7h 19m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322 5h 19m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → AVL 07:11 → ORD 08:29AA 3813 · flown by Envoy 1h 41m Chicago ORD 10:10 → EWR 13:30AA 2250 6h 19m 90% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AVL 17:38 → ORD 19:00UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 6h 01m 75% 60%
DeltaDetails → AVL 19:45 → ATL 21:02DL 5122 · flown by Endeavor 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 5h 13m 64% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON