Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3405 at 06:40, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3405 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AVL 06:40	MIA 08:44	14%	4%	1.1%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 22m	98%	85%
American Details →	AVL 05:00 → CLT 06:07AA 5257 · flown by PSA	58m Charlotte	CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12AA 770	4h 12m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 09m	92%	72%
American Details →	AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont	3h 16m Charlotte	CLT 13:30 → MIA 15:38AA 2912	6h 46m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:52 → MIA 14:55DL 1579	4h 50m	96%	70%
American Details →	AVL 05:30 → PHL 07:21AA 5846 · flown by Piedmont	2h 39m Philadelphia	PHL 10:00 → MIA 12:59AA 796	7h 29m	93%	69%
Delta Details →	AVL 17:04 → ATL 18:10DL 2037	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 35m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	AVL 15:25 → ATL 16:30DL 3099	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	6h 34m	99%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont	48m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	4h 19m	68%	53%
American Details →	AVL 17:32 → DFW 19:12AA 1429	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → MIA 23:56AA 2823	6h 24m	66%	43%
American Details →	AVL 20:15 → CLT 21:32AA 5792 · flown by Piedmont	1h 07m Charlotte	CLT 22:39 → MIA 00:46 +1AA 1596	4h 31m	58%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON