Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2181 at 13:14, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2181 Delta Flight history →	AVL 13:14	MSP 14:45	15%	4%	1.0%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960	5h 43m	97%	87%
American Details →	AVL 05:00 → CLT 06:07AA 5257 · flown by PSA	2h 18m Charlotte	CLT 08:25 → MSP 10:04AA 2154	6h 04m	95%	84%
American Details →	AVL 07:11 → ORD 08:29AA 3813 · flown by Envoy	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → MSP 13:32AA 3375 · flown by Envoy	7h 21m	97%	82%
United Details →	AVL 10:41 → ORD 11:53UA 4656 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298	6h 32m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	7h 01m	100%	81%
American Details →	AVL 05:30 → PHL 07:21AA 5846 · flown by Piedmont	3h 19m Philadelphia	PHL 10:40 → MSP 12:38AA 5658 · flown by PSA	8h 08m	96%	81%
United Details →	AVL 06:40 → ORD 07:52UA 4651 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → MSP 12:17UA 5684 · flown by SkyWest	6h 37m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	6h 57m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AVL 17:38 → ORD 19:00UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest	57m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	5h 03m	69%	55%
American Details →	AVL 17:32 → DFW 19:12AA 1429	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:04 → MSP 22:26AA 2978	5h 54m	65%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON