Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3813 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3813 AVL 07:11 → ORD 08:29 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3406 AVL 19:04 → ORD 20:29 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3813 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AVL 07:11	ORD 08:29	13%	4%	2.0%	86%
UA 4651 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AVL 06:40	ORD 07:52	14%	5%	1.6%	89%
UA 4656 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AVL 10:41	ORD 11:53	16%	6%	1.3%	80%
AA 3981 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AVL 11:39	ORD 12:43	17%	4%	1.6%	82%
UA 5289 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AVL 17:38	ORD 19:00	29%	10%	1.7%	61%
AA 3406 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AVL 19:04	ORD 20:29	30%	7%	2.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON