Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2744 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 2744 OAK 05:10 → MDW 11:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 3649 SFO 23:40 → MDW 05:55 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2744 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 05:10	MDW 11:15	6%	1%	0.6%	88%
AA 2614 American Flight history →	SFO 06:04	ORD 12:31	6%	2%	0.9%	92%
UA 2091 United Flight history →	SFO 06:05	ORD 12:41	6%	1%	0.6%	93%
UA 2451 United Flight history →	SJC 06:30	ORD 12:54	6%	3%	0.7%	97%
WN 1779 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 05:50	MDW 12:00	6%	1%	0.7%	83%
UA 1850 United Flight history →	SFO 00:50	ORD 07:16	11%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 3886 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 22:55	MDW 05:00	13%	4%	0.6%	94%
UA 1568 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	ORD 14:50	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 359 American Flight history →	SFO 08:00	ORD 14:27	15%	5%	0.8%	79%
WN 4357 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 10:05	MDW 16:10	16%	3%	0.6%	65%
WN 3059 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 23:55	MDW 06:00	17%	4%	0.6%	66%
UA 368 United Flight history →	SFO 23:30	ORD 05:57	17%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 1375 United Flight history →	SFO 18:34	ORD 00:59	21%	6%	0.6%	58%
UA 2278 United Flight history →	SFO 22:38	ORD 05:01	22%	5%	0.6%	81%
AA 2554 American Flight history →	SFO 23:30	ORD 05:45	22%	6%	0.8%	73%
UA 1482 United Flight history →	SFO 16:21	ORD 22:59	24%	6%	0.6%	81%
AA 2537 American Flight history →	SFO 16:20	ORD 23:00	24%	10%	0.8%	69%
AA 2543 American Flight history →	SFO 10:17	ORD 16:46	25%	10%	0.8%	71%
UA 1954 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	ORD 16:38	26%	6%	0.6%	72%
UA 2480 United Flight history →	SFO 15:10	ORD 21:38	27%	6%	0.6%	53%
UA 1777 United Flight history →	SFO 14:29	ORD 21:03	29%	7%	0.6%	46%
AA 2550 American Flight history →	SFO 14:36	ORD 21:27	31%	10%	0.8%	37%
UA 2317 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	ORD 18:35	32%	7%	0.6%	50%
WN 3649 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 23:40	MDW 05:55	36%	6%	0.6%	41%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	51m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → ORD 08:30DL 1544	5h 55m	90%	81%
Southwest Details →	OAK 08:15 → DEN 11:40WN 3042	1h 20m Denver	DEN 13:00 → MDW 16:20WN 1601	6h 05m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	OAK 09:00 → LAS 10:30WN 2374	50m Las Vegas	LAS 11:20 → MDW 16:50WN 4506	5h 50m	83%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON