Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 33 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 234 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 234 SFO 06:15 → JFK 15:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1597 SFO 12:35 → EWR 21:25 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 234 American Flight history →	SFO 06:15	JFK 15:02	4%	2%	1.1%	92%
DL 405 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:00	JFK 15:43	6%	3%	0.8%	90%
UA 419 United Flight history →	SFO 06:10	EWR 15:00	6%	2%	0.9%	91%
UA 1149 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	EWR 15:49	7%	2%	0.9%	91%
B6 116 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 06:00	JFK 14:38	8%	2%	0.8%	89%
AS 20 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	JFK 16:08	10%	3%	0.8%	80%
B6 316 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 08:00	JFK 16:37	14%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 276 American Flight history →	SFO 21:20	JFK 06:00	15%	5%	1.2%	87%
DL 383 Delta Flight history →	SFO 08:55	JFK 17:45	15%	6%	0.8%	88%
UA 435 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	EWR 16:53	17%	5%	0.9%	83%
AS 211 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 21:30	JFK 06:20	17%	4%	0.9%	92%
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:35	JFK 07:02	19%	6%	0.8%	78%
AA 148 American Flight history →	SFO 14:45	JFK 23:42	21%	8%	1.1%	73%
AA 16 American Flight history →	SFO 10:15	JFK 19:04	21%	9%	1.0%	75%
B6 216 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 13:15	JFK 22:02	21%	9%	0.8%	83%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:30	JFK 20:19	21%	10%	0.8%	76%
UA 698 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	EWR 05:51	22%	6%	1.0%	84%
DL 2112 Delta Flight history →	SFO 23:50	JFK 08:13	22%	5%	0.8%	66%
DL 396 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:00	JFK 00:40	23%	8%	0.8%	62%
AA 166 American Flight history →	SFO 12:10	JFK 21:00	23%	11%	1.0%	74%
UA 2248 United Flight history →	SFO 15:00	EWR 23:50	24%	9%	0.8%	67%
UA 274 United Flight history →	SFO 11:15	EWR 20:10	24%	11%	0.8%	76%
UA 1141 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	EWR 07:00	24%	6%	1.0%	83%
B6 16 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 22:18	JFK 07:00	25%	8%	0.8%	74%
B6 416 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 14:35	JFK 23:20	25%	8%	0.8%	80%
DL 691 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:00	JFK 21:44	26%	10%	0.8%	49%
UA 2626 United Flight history →	SFO 16:20	EWR 01:10	26%	9%	0.9%	70%
B6 816 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 23:50	JFK 08:33	27%	7%	0.8%	79%
AS 42 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:38	JFK 22:26	27%	9%	0.8%	68%
UA 2416 United Flight history →	SFO 23:59	EWR 08:22	27%	5%	1.1%	75%
UA 366 United Flight history →	SFO 13:45	EWR 22:26	29%	10%	0.8%	57%
UA 713 United Flight history →	SFO 10:20	EWR 19:03	30%	10%	0.8%	75%
UA 1597 United Flight history →	SFO 12:35	EWR 21:25	32%	11%	0.8%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 14m	94%	85%
United Details →	SJC 18:37 → DEN 22:15UA 1035	1h 44m Denver	DEN 23:59 → EWR 05:40 +1UA 1745	8h 03m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 57m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON