Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2664 at 09:33 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2664 SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2683 SFO 21:10 → BWI 05:25 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2664 United Flight history →	SFO 09:33	BWI 17:57	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	SFO 22:40	BWI 07:09	14%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 1849 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	IAD 16:25	14%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1678 United Flight history →	SFO 08:20	DCA 16:47	14%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 1083 United Flight history →	SFO 23:05	IAD 07:30	15%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 2837 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	IAD 06:58	19%	5%	0.6%	67%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	19%	6%	0.6%	87%
UA 357 United Flight history →	SFO 21:30	IAD 05:53	20%	5%	0.6%	74%
AS 8 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:39	DCA 17:59	20%	6%	0.6%	78%
WN 621 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:40	BWI 05:45	20%	5%	0.5%	74%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 13:15	IAD 21:25	21%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 336 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAD 19:11	22%	6%	0.6%	78%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	SFO 14:18	DCA 22:30	24%	7%	0.6%	71%
WN 2683 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 21:10	BWI 05:25	37%	7%	0.6%	43%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00DL 2958	7h 25m	97%	89%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	98%	86%
United Details →	SFO 06:00 → LAS 07:46UA 582	1h 02m Las Vegas	LAS 08:48 → IAD 16:24UA 1140	7h 24m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON