tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4472 at 11:35, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4472 Southwest Flight history → BDL 11:35 BNA 13:00 10% 3% 0.6% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → BNA 10:10DL 1155 5h 10m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BDL 05:50 → BWI 07:10WN 420 2h 35m Baltimore BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487 5h 45m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 04m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 29m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:00 → ATL 09:26DL 2554 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 30m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 1h 05m Detroit DTW 08:30 → BNA 09:11DL 2682 4h 41m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672 2h 43m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 7h 20m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:20 → PHL 07:40AA 6111 · flown by Piedmont 1h 55m Philadelphia PHL 09:35 → BNA 10:51AA 3221 5h 31m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:35 → MSP 09:29DL 1330 3h 21m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843 8h 17m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BDL 10:26 → IAD 11:55UA 3993 · flown by Mesa 55m Dulles IAD 12:50 → BNA 13:49UA 213 4h 23m 71% 62%
AmericanDetails → BDL 19:33 → DCA 21:10AA 5412 · flown by PSA 50m Washington DCA 22:00 → BNA 23:05AA 5513 · flown by PSA 4h 32m 70% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON