Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3182 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 3182 BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1443 BDL 17:28 → CLT 19:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3182 American Flight history →	BDL 06:01	CLT 08:08	7%	2%	0.8%	93%
AA 2133 American Flight history →	BDL 07:38	CLT 09:50	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 1449 American Flight history →	BDL 10:20	CLT 12:27	12%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 1448 American Flight history →	BDL 14:44	CLT 17:00	20%	8%	0.7%	56%
AA 1443 American Flight history →	BDL 17:28	CLT 19:45	22%	7%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON