tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2052 United Flight history → BDL 07:45 DEN 10:09 9% 2% 0.6% 92%
UA 2239 United Flight history → BDL 15:30 DEN 17:58 16% 5% 0.6% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 2h 47m Dulles IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 8h 05m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BDL 05:50 → BWI 07:10WN 420 2h 30m Baltimore BWI 09:40 → DEN 11:25WN 275 7h 35m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 1h 15m Detroit DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113 6h 17m 97% 87%
JetBlueDetails → BDL 06:45 → JFK 07:44B6 676 2h 46m New York JFK 10:30 → DEN 13:11B6 1497 8h 26m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995 7h 05m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672 3h 00m Chicago ORD 10:54 → DEN 12:45UA 581 8h 36m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → BDL 15:02 → IAD 16:35UA 1764 2h 45m Dulles IAD 19:20 → DEN 21:27UA 2667 8h 25m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:00 → ATL 09:26DL 2554 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:55 → DEN 13:00DL 706 8h 00m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BDL 10:26 → IAD 11:55UA 3993 · flown by Mesa 53m Dulles IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587 6h 16m 69% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON