tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:05, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2729 American Flight history → BDL 06:04 DFW 08:59 9% 2% 0.8% 86%
AA 1438 American Flight history → BDL 17:59 DFW 20:57 23% 7% 1.0% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 04m Dulles IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53UA 2471 5h 53m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → BDL 05:00 → DCA 06:33AA 5034 · flown by PSA 1h 26m Washington DCA 07:59 → DFW 10:31AA 1978 6h 31m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961 6h 12m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672 2h 35m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441 8h 03m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:20 → PHL 07:40AA 6111 · flown by Piedmont 1h 27m Philadelphia PHL 09:07 → DFW 11:45AA 812 6h 25m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → BDL 09:36 → DCA 11:11AA 5060 · flown by PSA 2h 33m Washington DCA 13:44 → DFW 16:11AA 1177 7h 35m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182 3h 22m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → DFW 13:16AA 1285 8h 15m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:00 → ATL 09:26DL 2554 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414 6h 44m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BDL 10:26 → IAD 11:55UA 3993 · flown by Mesa 46m Dulles IAD 12:41 → DFW 15:05UA 1564 5h 39m 64% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON