Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 635 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Safest bet that day UA 635 BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1764 BDL 15:02 → IAD 16:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 635 United Flight history →	BDL 06:00	IAD 07:26	4%	1%	0.6%	94%
UA 1764 United Flight history →	BDL 15:02	IAD 16:35	15%	7%	0.6%	73%
UA 3993 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	BDL 10:26	IAD 11:55	19%	17%	2.3%	81%
UA 3999 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	BDL 19:45	IAD 21:14	32%	11%	6.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON