Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 737 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day B6 737 BDL 07:20 → MCO 10:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 1537 BDL 17:20 → MCO 20:20 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 737 JetBlue Flight history →	BDL 07:20	MCO 10:16	11%	3%	11.3%	86%
F9 2769 Frontier Flight history →	BDL 12:27	MCO 15:30	20%	9%	17.0%	74%
B6 2937 JetBlue Flight history →	BDL 14:18	MCO 17:16	26%	10%	15.3%	72%
WN 692 Southwest Flight history →	BDL 17:10	MCO 20:05	30%	8%	17.4%	47%
B6 1537 JetBlue Flight history →	BDL 17:20	MCO 20:20	31%	14%	17.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON