tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 412 at 05:00, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 412 American Flight history → BDL 05:00 MIA 08:13 7% 2% 1.3% 95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 19m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 35m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 1h 57m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 58m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → BDL 05:00 → DCA 06:33AA 5034 · flown by PSA 1h 47m Washington DCA 08:20 → MIA 11:17AA 422 6h 17m 97% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BDL 05:50 → BWI 07:10WN 420 1h 10m Baltimore BWI 08:20 → MIA 11:00WN 3278 5h 10m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 7h 02m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182 2h 54m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 7h 10m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:20 → PHL 07:40AA 6111 · flown by Piedmont 2h 20m Philadelphia PHL 10:00 → MIA 12:59AA 796 6h 39m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 12:52 → MIA 14:55DL 1579 6h 50m 99% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON