tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 335 at 05:20, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 335 Southwest Flight history → BDL 05:20 TPA 08:20 3% 1% 17.1% 95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 34m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 5h 32m 99% 75%
SouthwestDetails → BDL 05:50 → BWI 07:10WN 420 1h 20m Baltimore BWI 08:30 → TPA 11:00WN 1120 5h 10m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672 3h 25m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 9h 03m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 6h 39m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 2h 50m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 7h 20m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → BDL 05:00 → DCA 06:33AA 5034 · flown by PSA 56m Washington DCA 07:29 → TPA 09:58AA 2775 4h 58m 95% 71%
DeltaDetails → BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 6h 08m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:20 → PHL 07:40AA 6111 · flown by Piedmont 1h 13m Philadelphia PHL 08:53 → TPA 11:40AA 2822 5h 20m 100% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BDL 10:26 → IAD 11:55UA 3993 · flown by Mesa 54m Dulles IAD 12:49 → TPA 15:15UA 2277 4h 49m 70% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON