Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BGR 06:00 → ORD 08:00UA 4667 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → ATL 13:44UA 2684	7h 44m	98%	86%
American Details →	BGR 06:30 → PHL 08:22AA 2536	2h 53m Philadelphia	PHL 11:15 → ATL 13:35AA 621	7h 05m	97%	84%
American Details →	BGR 06:55 → ORD 09:05AA 2324	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 11:45 → ATL 14:57AA 4759 · flown by Republic	8h 02m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	BGR 05:20 → LGA 07:00DL 5137 · flown by Endeavor	3h 00m New York	LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989	7h 08m	96%	81%
United Details →	BGR 07:00 → EWR 08:43UA 3474 · flown by Republic	2h 17m Newark	EWR 11:00 → ATL 13:23UA 642	6h 23m	95%	81%
United Details →	BGR 11:46 → EWR 13:29UA 3701 · flown by Republic	2h 49m Newark	EWR 16:18 → ATL 19:01UA 1848	7h 15m	99%	78%
American Details →	BGR 16:18 → CLT 19:08AA 842	3h 28m Charlotte	CLT 22:36 → ATL 23:58AA 5498 · flown by PSA	7h 40m	99%	77%
American Details →	BGR 11:16 → PHL 13:13AA 6123 · flown by Piedmont	2h 15m Philadelphia	PHL 15:28 → ATL 17:49AA 2983	6h 33m	96%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BGR 16:22 → JFK 18:09DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor	51m New York	JFK 19:00 → ATL 22:11DL 962	5h 49m	73%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON