tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1463 American Flight history → BGR 14:25 CLT 17:15 15% 6% 0.8% 86%
AA 842 American Flight history → BGR 16:18 CLT 19:08 20% 8% 0.7% 36%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BGR 06:00 → ORD 08:00UA 4667 · flown by SkyWest 2h 26m Chicago ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic 7h 50m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → BGR 06:30 → PHL 08:22AA 2536 3h 45m Philadelphia PHL 12:07 → CLT 14:00AA 1311 7h 30m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → BGR 11:16 → PHL 13:13AA 6123 · flown by Piedmont 3h 42m Philadelphia PHL 16:55 → CLT 18:58AA 3030 7h 42m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → BGR 07:00 → EWR 08:43UA 3474 · flown by Republic 1h 20m Newark EWR 10:03 → CLT 12:07UA 3504 · flown by Republic 5h 07m 94% 81%
AmericanDetails → BGR 06:55 → ORD 09:05AA 2324 2h 55m Chicago ORD 12:00 → CLT 15:08AA 2681 8h 13m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → BGR 06:00 → DCA 08:09AA 5459 · flown by PSA 3h 47m Washington DCA 11:56 → CLT 13:35AA 1295 7h 35m 93% 77%
AmericanDetails → BGR 12:59 → ORD 15:09AA 2299 2h 36m Chicago ORD 17:45 → CLT 20:59AA 2917 8h 00m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → BGR 10:59 → DCA 13:08AA 5061 · flown by PSA 2h 15m Washington DCA 15:23 → CLT 17:10AA 804 6h 11m 93% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BGR 15:58 → DCA 18:06AA 5568 · flown by PSA 1h 01m Washington DCA 19:07 → CLT 20:49AA 3263 4h 51m 75% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON