Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5459 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 5459 BGR 06:00 → DCA 08:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 5568 BGR 15:58 → DCA 18:06 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5459 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BGR 06:00	DCA 08:09	10%	4%	1.9%	82%
AA 5061 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BGR 10:59	DCA 13:08	20%	7%	1.6%	74%
AA 5568 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BGR 15:58	DCA 18:06	26%	10%	2.1%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON