Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5151 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BGR 16:22	JFK 18:09	23%	12%	3.0%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BGR 06:55 → ORD 09:05AA 2324	1h 55m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → JFK 14:39AA 4350 · flown by Republic	7h 44m	96%	82%
American Details →	BGR 10:59 → DCA 13:08AA 5061 · flown by PSA	1h 46m Washington	DCA 14:54 → JFK 16:29AA 4781 · flown by Republic	5h 30m	91%	74%
American Details →	BGR 14:25 → CLT 17:15AA 1463	3h 39m Charlotte	CLT 20:54 → JFK 23:00AA 1727	8h 35m	97%	72%
American Details →	BGR 15:58 → DCA 18:06AA 5568 · flown by PSA	1h 52m Washington	DCA 19:58 → JFK 21:30AA 4474 · flown by Republic	5h 32m	91%	70%
American Details →	BGR 12:59 → ORD 15:09AA 2299	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 16:30 → JFK 20:04AA 1421	7h 05m	90%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BGR 14:25 → CLT 17:15AA 1463	47m Charlotte	CLT 18:02 → JFK 20:06AA 657	5h 41m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON