Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2324 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2324 BGR 06:55 → ORD 09:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest UA 4732 BGR 16:35 → ORD 18:57 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2324 American Flight history →	BGR 06:55	ORD 09:05	9%	4%	1.1%	79%
UA 4667 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BGR 06:00	ORD 08:00	9%	5%	1.2%	83%
AA 2299 American Flight history →	BGR 12:59	ORD 15:09	14%	6%	1.0%	77%
UA 4732 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BGR 16:35	ORD 18:57	19%	9%	1.1%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON