Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1979 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1979 BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 2484 BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1979 Delta Flight history →	BHM 05:15	ATL 07:19	4%	2%	0.6%	98%
DL 3100 Delta Flight history →	BHM 09:30	ATL 11:34	7%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 3164 Delta Flight history →	BHM 10:42	ATL 12:46	7%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 1618 Delta Flight history →	BHM 06:15	ATL 08:24	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 1369 Delta Flight history →	BHM 07:28	ATL 09:34	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1017 Delta Flight history →	BHM 12:03	ATL 14:08	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2470 Delta Flight history →	BHM 19:46	ATL 22:00	13%	5%	0.8%	70%
DL 3012 Delta Flight history →	BHM 14:10	ATL 16:17	14%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 3163 Delta Flight history →	BHM 16:00	ATL 18:14	14%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 1132 Delta Flight history →	BHM 18:46	ATL 21:00	17%	5%	0.8%	74%
DL 2484 Delta Flight history →	BHM 17:27	ATL 19:30	19%	4%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON