tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 430 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 430 Southwest Flight history → BHM 05:30 BNA 06:30 2% 1% 0.6% 95%
WN 4389 Southwest Flight history → BHM 18:40 BNA 19:40 30% 7% 0.6% 19%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1979 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069 3h 26m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 15m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → BHM 07:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4449 · flown by GoJet 2h 48m Chicago ORD 12:29 → BNA 14:14UA 3634 · flown by Republic 6h 56m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:25 → DTW 09:27DL 3006 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 38m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → BHM 06:15 → DAL 08:00WN 239 2h 00m Dallas DAL 10:00 → BNA 11:50WN 5062 5h 35m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 4h 33m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → BHM 05:06 → CLT 07:35AA 3269 1h 30m Charlotte CLT 09:05 → BNA 09:49AA 5083 · flown by PSA 4h 43m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 4h 44m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BHM 17:15 → DEN 19:05WN 437 1h 05m Denver DEN 20:10 → BNA 23:45WN 4429 6h 30m 67% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON