Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 432 at 14:40, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 432 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 14:40	BWI 17:40	20%	6%	0.6%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BHM 05:00 → MDW 06:50WN 442	2h 05m Chicago	MDW 08:55 → BWI 11:45WN 1355	5h 45m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1979	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801	4h 32m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	5h 46m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 23m	99%	85%
American Details →	BHM 05:06 → CLT 07:35AA 3269	4h 00m Charlotte	CLT 11:35 → BWI 13:03AA 846	6h 57m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	6h 12m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267	5h 33m	99%	80%
United Details →	BHM 07:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4449 · flown by GoJet	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653	5h 39m	92%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BHM 18:40 → BNA 19:40WN 4389	50m Nashville	BNA 20:30 → BWI 23:20WN 468	3h 40m	68%	52%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:41 → DTW 20:54DL 4990 · flown by Endeavor	51m Detroit	DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715	4h 37m	46%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON