Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3269 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3269 BHM 05:06 → CLT 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 5077 BHM 18:42 → CLT 21:27 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3269 American Flight history →	BHM 05:06	CLT 07:35	5%	4%	0.8%	94%
AA 2349 American Flight history →	BHM 08:26	CLT 10:59	8%	4%	0.8%	94%
AA 6196 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BHM 12:39	CLT 15:22	16%	5%	0.5%	79%
AA 5075 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 14:45	CLT 17:29	17%	6%	0.9%	62%
AA 5077 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 18:42	CLT 21:27	23%	7%	1.1%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON