Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5295 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 5295 BHM 08:10 → DEN 10:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 437 BHM 17:15 → DEN 19:05 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5295 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BHM 08:10	DEN 10:35	8%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 436 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 09:20	DEN 11:05	11%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 447 United Flight history →	BHM 15:40	DEN 17:54	17%	5%	0.6%	73%
WN 437 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 17:15	DEN 19:05	35%	6%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON