Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5279 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 5279 BHM 05:00 → DFW 07:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 5329 BHM 16:49 → DFW 19:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5279 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 05:00	DFW 07:10	9%	4%	1.3%	89%
AA 3425 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 09:29	DFW 11:40	10%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 3469 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 12:23	DFW 14:35	11%	3%	0.8%	82%
AA 3214 American Flight history →	BHM 06:18	DFW 08:29	12%	6%	1.0%	80%
AA 3417 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 19:05	DFW 21:20	20%	6%	1.0%	64%
AA 5063 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 15:12	DFW 17:23	21%	10%	1.0%	48%
AA 5329 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 16:49	DFW 19:00	23%	10%	1.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON