Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4517 at 12:10, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4517 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 12:10	HOU 13:55	19%	4%	0.8%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BHM 05:30 → BNA 06:30WN 430	1h 30m Nashville	BNA 08:00 → HOU 10:05WN 532	4h 35m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	BHM 05:00 → MDW 06:50WN 442	3h 20m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → HOU 12:50WN 2783	7h 50m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1979	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 30m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	BHM 06:15 → DAL 08:00WN 239	3h 30m Dallas	DAL 11:30 → HOU 12:45WN 19	6h 30m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	5h 55m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 52m	100%	80%
American Details →	BHM 06:18 → DFW 08:29AA 3214	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:51 → HOU 12:16AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	5h 58m	97%	77%
Southwest Details →	BHM 09:20 → DEN 11:05WN 436	1h 25m Denver	DEN 12:30 → HOU 16:05WN 1544	6h 45m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON