Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 440 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 440 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 06:50	MCO 09:25	5%	2%	12.8%	94%
WN 3656 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 17:20	MCO 20:10	31%	10%	15.7%	55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BHM 05:30 → BNA 06:30WN 430	2h 45m Nashville	BNA 09:15 → MCO 12:10WN 4712	5h 40m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1979	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213	3h 41m	96%	75%
Southwest Details →	BHM 05:00 → MDW 06:50WN 442	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 08:00 → MCO 11:35WN 2817	5h 35m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	BHM 06:15 → DAL 08:00WN 239	1h 10m Dallas	DAL 09:10 → MCO 12:50WN 1725	5h 35m	97%	73%
American Details →	BHM 05:06 → CLT 07:35AA 3269	2h 34m Charlotte	CLT 10:09 → MCO 11:57AA 2074	5h 51m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664	4h 45m	98%	71%
American Details →	BHM 06:00 → DCA 09:18AA 5561 · flown by PSA	2h 07m Washington	DCA 11:25 → MCO 13:51AA 2062	6h 51m	99%	68%
Delta Details →	BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030	4h 32m	96%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BHM 18:40 → BNA 19:40WN 4389	50m Nashville	BNA 20:30 → MCO 23:35WN 572	3h 55m	68%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON