tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 442 at 05:00, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 442 Southwest Flight history → BHM 05:00 MDW 06:50 4% 1% 0.6% 100%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1979 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 6h 41m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BHM 06:15 → DAL 08:00WN 239 2h 05m Dallas DAL 10:05 → MDW 12:20WN 1357 6h 05m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 6h 45m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:25 → DTW 09:27DL 3006 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 6h 21m 99% 79%
SouthwestDetails → BHM 09:20 → DEN 11:05WN 436 1h 55m Denver DEN 13:00 → MDW 16:20WN 1601 7h 00m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 6h 15m 97% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BHM 14:40 → BWI 17:40WN 432 3h 15m Baltimore BWI 20:55 → MDW 22:00WN 999 7h 20m 98% 73%
SouthwestDetails → BHM 12:10 → HOU 13:55WN 4517 2h 45m Houston HOU 16:40 → MDW 19:05WN 2042 6h 55m 100% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON