Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3423 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 49%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3423 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 06:05	MIA 09:07	15%	5%	1.1%	91%
AA 3629 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 17:26	MIA 20:28	49%	15%	2.2%	50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1979	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 42m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	BHM 05:00 → MDW 06:50WN 442	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 08:00 → MIA 12:00WN 2464	6h 00m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 47m	99%	79%
American Details →	BHM 05:06 → CLT 07:35AA 3269	1h 50m Charlotte	CLT 09:25 → MIA 11:37AA 1436	5h 31m	97%	78%
American Details →	BHM 08:26 → CLT 10:59AA 2349	2h 31m Charlotte	CLT 13:30 → MIA 15:38AA 2912	6h 12m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	BHM 06:15 → DAL 08:00WN 239	3h 30m Dallas	DAL 11:30 → MIA 15:20WN 1361	8h 05m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 28m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:52 → MIA 14:55DL 1579	6h 27m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BHM 17:47 → PHL 21:07AA 5064 · flown by PSA	48m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	6h 05m	74%	52%
American Details →	BHM 15:12 → DFW 17:23AA 5063 · flown by PSA	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:10 → MIA 22:05AA 2206	5h 53m	73%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON