Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5218 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5218 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 06:00	PHL 09:20	9%	4%	1.1%	91%
AA 5064 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 17:47	PHL 21:07	22%	9%	1.5%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BHM 05:00 → MDW 06:50WN 442	2h 10m Chicago	MDW 09:00 → PHL 11:55WN 4901	5h 55m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1979	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	4h 42m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 09m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	BHM 05:30 → BNA 06:30WN 430	3h 45m Nashville	BNA 10:15 → PHL 13:20WN 623	6h 50m	99%	84%
American Details →	BHM 05:06 → CLT 07:35AA 3269	1h 54m Charlotte	CLT 09:29 → PHL 11:12AA 2291	5h 06m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	6h 34m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	5h 34m	99%	81%
United Details →	BHM 07:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4449 · flown by GoJet	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	6h 29m	96%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON