tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3193 at 14:20, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3193 Southwest Flight history → BHM 14:20 TPA 16:50 24% 8% 17.1% 46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BHM 05:00 → MDW 06:50WN 442 2h 25m Chicago MDW 09:15 → TPA 12:50WN 2907 6h 50m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1979 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227 3h 52m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 5h 24m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 13:57 → TPA 15:27DL 1167 4h 57m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 5h 45m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → BHM 07:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4449 · flown by GoJet 1h 38m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 6h 54m 95% 68%
AmericanDetails → BHM 05:06 → CLT 07:35AA 3269 1h 40m Charlotte CLT 09:15 → TPA 11:04AA 2828 4h 58m 97% 67%
AmericanDetails → BHM 08:26 → CLT 10:59AA 2349 1h 55m Charlotte CLT 12:54 → TPA 14:38AA 2832 5h 12m 98% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BHM 11:10 → LGA 14:45DL 4936 · flown by Endeavor 54m New York LGA 15:39 → TPA 18:54DL 2404 6h 44m 71% 41%
SouthwestDetails → BHM 17:15 → DEN 19:05WN 437 50m Denver DEN 19:55 → TPA 01:35 +1WN 2232 7h 20m 46% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON