Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5829 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 5829 BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 478 BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5829 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 05:00	DEN 06:53	4%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 557 United Flight history →	BIL 07:00	DEN 08:50	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 5463 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 10:40	DEN 12:33	10%	3%	0.6%	99%
UA 4758 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 18:00	DEN 19:52	15%	4%	0.6%	71%
UA 5590 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 16:10	DEN 18:03	16%	5%	0.6%	42%
UA 478 United Flight history →	BIL 14:25	DEN 16:15	17%	5%	0.5%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON