Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3746 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 06:00	DFW 09:55	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 3429 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 13:29	DFW 17:20	14%	3%	0.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:55 → DFW 11:37DL 2798	5h 17m	98%	89%
United Details →	BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Denver	DEN 09:40 → DFW 12:48UA 355	6h 48m	97%	88%
United Details →	BIL 10:40 → DEN 12:33UA 5463 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Denver	DEN 15:42 → DFW 18:48UA 414	7h 08m	100%	81%
United Details →	BIL 16:10 → DEN 18:03UA 5590 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Denver	DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239	6h 49m	95%	78%
United Details →	BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15UA 478	2h 38m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	6h 34m	97%	77%
American Details →	BIL 12:49 → ORD 16:49AA 3428 · flown by Envoy	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 19:24 → DFW 22:06AA 3544 · flown by Envoy	8h 17m	96%	76%
Alaska Details →	BIL 13:45 → SEA 14:55AS 2055 · flown by Horizon	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 17:56 → DFW 23:59AS 424	9h 14m	98%	68%
Alaska Details →	BIL 19:22 → SEA 20:35AS 2084 · flown by Horizon	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 23:03 → DFW 05:02 +1AS 542	8h 40m	98%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON