Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2254 at 06:24, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2254 Delta Flight history →	BIL 06:24	MSP 09:27	3%	3%	0.6%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	5h 09m	98%	90%
United Details →	BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Denver	DEN 09:35 → MSP 12:34UA 397	6h 34m	97%	88%
United Details →	BIL 10:40 → DEN 12:33UA 5463 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Denver	DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470	7h 06m	100%	82%
United Details →	BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15UA 478	2h 30m Denver	DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076	6h 25m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	BIL 18:34 → SLC 20:09DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → MSP 00:34 +1DL 1173	5h 00m	94%	80%
United Details →	BIL 16:10 → DEN 18:03UA 5590 · flown by SkyWest	2h 51m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	6h 49m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	BIL 11:50 → SLC 13:22DL 4038 · flown by SkyWest	3h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	8h 04m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	BIL 06:00 → SEA 07:12AS 2247 · flown by Horizon	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555	6h 57m	96%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON