tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3428 at 12:49, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3428 American flown by Envoy Flight history → BIL 12:49 ORD 16:49 20% 4% 0.7% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Denver DEN 08:00 → ORD 11:44UA 2430 5h 44m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360 1h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 07:50 → ORD 12:00DL 2247 5h 40m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → BIL 06:24 → MSP 09:27DL 2254 3h 58m Minneapolis MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533 7h 41m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BIL 16:10 → DEN 18:03UA 5590 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 21:05 → ORD 00:44 +1UA 2649 7h 34m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15UA 478 3h 25m Denver DEN 19:40 → ORD 23:19UA 2085 7h 54m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → BIL 07:00 → DEN 08:50UA 557 2h 25m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 6h 55m 92% 79%
UnitedDetails → BIL 10:40 → DEN 12:33UA 5463 · flown by SkyWest 3h 56m Denver DEN 16:29 → ORD 20:14UA 675 8h 34m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → BIL 06:00 → DFW 09:55AA 3746 · flown by Envoy 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 8h 51m 100% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON