tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4621 at 13:00, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4621 Southwest Flight history → BNA 13:00 ABQ 14:55 16% 4% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 3h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 14:10 → ABQ 15:54DL 3820 · flown by SkyWest 9h 19m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635 50m Phoenix PHX 07:45 → ABQ 10:00WN 3228 5h 40m 96% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:10 → DAL 07:00WN 485 3h 45m Dallas DAL 10:45 → ABQ 11:30WN 1253 7h 20m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → ABQ 10:12DL 1004 6h 02m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:30 → IAH 08:42UA 396 3h 22m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 7h 57m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 07:00 → LAS 08:50WN 3993 1h 55m Las Vegas LAS 10:45 → ABQ 13:20WN 2175 7h 20m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:01 → DFW 07:12AA 2821 3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:41 → ABQ 11:37AA 3371 · flown by Envoy 7h 36m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 6h 43m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 19:34 → DFW 21:50AA 5475 · flown by PSA 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:56 → ABQ 23:49AA 2564 5h 15m 71% 50%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 18:55 → DAL 20:50WN 490 1h 00m Dallas DAL 21:50 → ABQ 22:40WN 1255 4h 45m 68% 43%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 16:20 → PHX 18:00WN 639 55m Phoenix PHX 18:55 → ABQ 21:05WN 1050 5h 45m 65% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON